Zelensky Asserts He Lacks Definitive Defense Guarantee from Allies

War in Ukraine conflict imagery
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is approaching its fourth anniversary.

President Zelensky has stated that Ukraine's partners in Europe have not given him sound guarantees that they will defend Ukraine in the event of a fresh offensive by Russia.

"I continue to pose this critical question to every one of our allies and thus far, the answer remains elusive a definitive and straightforward response yet," he told reporters on midweek.

These remarks follow a day after the UK and France inked a declaration of intent on stationing forces in Ukraine should a ceasefire agreement to conclude the conflict with Moscow is agreed.

However, full security guarantees have yet to be solidified. The United States, which has been leading efforts to end the invasion, reportedly did not sign such a commitment at talks in Paris on the previous day.

Outcomes from the Paris Discussions

After the Paris talks, which involved some three dozen nations that form the so-called Coalition of the Willing, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the UK and France would "set up operational bases across Ukraine" to prevent any future incursion, while France's President Macron subsequently indicated a significant number of soldiers may be deployed.

Partner nations suggested that the United States would assume a leading role in overseeing any ceasefire. But the key issue of territorial concessions that Ukraine is being asked to grant to Russia as part of the peace proposals are still being discussed.

The Russian government has thus far remained silent on the announcement made in the French capital.

President Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Russian forces currently controls about one-fifth of Ukrainian territory.

Zelensky's Shifting Tone

Sir Keir described the joint statement as "a vital part of our dedication to stand with Ukraine for the foreseeable future".

He added: "It paves the way for the legal framework under which allied military personnel could operate on Ukrainian soil, protecting Ukrainian airspace and waters, and regenerating Ukraine's military for the future."

The Ukrainian leader praised that accord as a "huge step forward".

A day later, however, he seemed more cautious.

"I see the will, the political will, and that the partners are ready, and the partners are ready to give us robust economic measures, powerful defense assurances," he said when questioned if nations in Europe would come to Ukraine's aid.

"But as long as we don't have such binding security pacts - formally ratified, supported by parliaments, backed by the U.S. Congress - this crucial issue remains unresolved. And even if they do, you must ultimately depend first and foremost on your inherent capabilities."

Unresolved Issues and Ongoing Conflict

The Paris talks were also notable due to the attendance of US President Donald Trump's peace envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.

One envoy stated the participating countries "mostly completed" their work on agreeing security protocols.

Damaged Ukrainian infrastructure
Russia continues to strike Ukrainian cities and vital facilities across the country on a regular basis.

Recently, the President indicated a peace deal was "90% ready".

Questions of land and defense pledges have been at the forefront of outstanding matters for negotiators.

Putin has repeatedly warned that Ukrainian troops must withdraw from all of Ukraine's eastern Donbas or Moscow will take control, dismissing potential concessions over how to end the war.

The Ukrainian President has thus far rejected relinquishing any land, but has proposed that Ukraine could withdraw its troops to an agreed point - but only if Russia reciprocated the action.

Russian forces now holds about three-quarters of the Donetsk oblast, and some 99% of the neighbouring Luhansk. The two regions constitute the industrial Donbas region.

Attacks have been escalating against Ukrainian cities - particularly targeting energy infrastructure. Moscow is also achieving incremental advances in seizing additional Ukrainian land.

Ukraine has hit back at objectives inside Russia with unmanned aerial vehicles, albeit with varying degrees of effectiveness.

Megan Johnson
Megan Johnson

Elena Voss is a financial analyst with over 15 years of experience in European markets, specializing in portfolio management and economic forecasting.