A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
